The Danger of a Cycle of Escalation

The greatest concern surrounding the September 9 events is not necessarily any individual attack.

It is the possibility of escalation.

Military conflicts can become increasingly difficult to control once each side believes that failing to respond will make it appear weak.

For Iran, allowing attacks on Iranian oil tankers to continue without retaliation could be interpreted domestically as unacceptable.

For the United States, allowing attacks against American warships could similarly be seen as unacceptable.

Each side therefore has incentives to respond.

But retaliation can produce another retaliation.

This creates what analysts often describe as an escalation spiral.

The danger becomes particularly serious when commercial vessels are caught in the middle.

Commercial shipping companies are not parties to the political dispute.

Yet their vessels can become targets because they operate in the same maritime environment as military forces.

That creates risks for crews, cargoes, insurers, ports and global supply chains.