Mourning for Khamenei’s Death: A Hypothetical Crisis Scenario and Its Global Consequences

Stage Three: Proxy Network Activation

The Islamic Republic has historically relied on asymmetric deterrence through regional alliances.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps maintains relationships with various armed groups across the region.

In an escalation scenario, proxy activation could:

• Open secondary fronts

• Increase cross-border rocket exchanges

• Target strategic military installations

Proxy warfare complicates escalation because it creates ambiguity. Attribution becomes politically contested.