Mourning for Khamenei’s Death: A Hypothetical Crisis Scenario and Its Global Consequences

Stage Two: Retaliatory Military Response

If retaliation were to occur, it could take multiple forms:

Direct Strike Escalation

Iran might launch missile or drone strikes against perceived military targets linked to Israel or U.S. forces in neighboring states.

Israel, maintaining its long-standing doctrine of rapid counter-response, could respond proportionally — or disproportionately — depending on strategic objectives.

Targeted Infrastructure Strikes

Military infrastructure, radar systems, and weapons depots would likely be prioritized over civilian targets, but even limited strikes risk collateral consequences.

This phase would test the durability of regional alliances and military preparedness.