Global Protests Supporting Democracy: Anti-Government Movements, and International Response in 2026

Scenario 1: Peaceful Transition to Democracy

• Description: Sustained protests, international pressure, and internal divisions lead to the emergence of a transitional government.
• Implications: Greater regional stability, improved human rights, and democratic reforms.
• Challenges: Regime resilience, internal fragmentation, and possible foreign interference.

Scenario 2: Regime Resilience and Crackdowns

• Description: The Iranian government intensifies repression, suppressing protests and arresting opposition leaders.
• Implications: Prolonged authoritarian rule, regional instability, and risk of escalation.
• Challenges: International sanctions and diplomatic isolation could deepen.

Scenario 3: Military or External Intervention

• Description: Escalating violence prompts external powers to intervene militarily or diplomatically.
• Implications: Potential for conflict, regional destabilization, but also a possible pathway to regime change.
• Challenges: Risks of wider regional war, loss of civilian lives, and geopolitical fallout.

Scenario 4: Fragmentation and Civil War

• Description: Deep internal divisions lead to regional or ethnic conflicts within Iran.
• Implications: Fragmented state, humanitarian crisis, increased regional tension.
• Challenges: International humanitarian response, risk of proxy conflicts.